Picture this: Students lounge on towels outside of Memorial Union typing on their laptops and reading from textbooks. Madisonians rollerblade in James Madison Park, sporting shorts and t-shirts. And runners, walkers and bikers coast by one another on Lakeshore Path.
Doesn’t this sound like a typical summer Saturday?
But this isn’t June in Madison. It’s March.
Wisconsin’s winter featured little snow and mild temperatures, prompting an exodus of people from their homes to enjoy temperatures as high as 72 degrees outside. But College of Letters & Science experts remain wary of what this winter means in the long run, especially for the state’s recreation and fishing industries.
“This is the wave of the future,” says Jonathan Martin, a professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences. “And it’s a future that will endanger lots of different industries in our state.”
The cool air found over the Northern Hemisphere is the third warmest in the last 76 years, playing a role in the fact that the Upper Midwest has experienced its warmest winter in more than 130 years. Although marked by a “robust” El Niño, which changes the location of thunderstorms over the tropical Pacific Ocean and affects global weather patterns, winter in Wisconsin has been nearly “bone dry” this year.
“Usually when there’s a strong El Niño, we have a wet, warm winter,” Martin says. “This year was the opposite.”
In Madison, the normal total snowfall is 51.8 inches. This year the city had just 32.8 inches of snow. Lakes are freezing later and thawing earlier, as well. The average duration of ice cover on Lake Mendota is 102 days. It was just 44 this year. Not only does this affect recreation such as pond hockey and ice fishing, it has a profound effect on lake ecosystems.
“It disrupts seasonal life cycles,” says Zach Feiner, a scientist with the Center for Limnology. “It breaks down all the important linkages in our aquatic food webs.”
A Changing Culture and Economy in Wisconsin
A mild winter and early spring can lead to the growth of more plants and increased algae blooms in lakes as well as more fishing across the state, according to Feiner. Walleye, one of the most abundant species in Wisconsin, are just one example of fish populations already affected by the changing climate.
Although walleye populations have been in decline across the state for decades, a recent report from the Center for Limnology outlines the immediate impact of this warm winter. Walleye prefer cooler lake temperatures, and the warmer water today negatively affects spawning seasons, reducing the population in the long term.
“Fishing is a major part of the lifeblood of the Wisconsin economy, but also our culture and our tradition,” Feiner says, underscoring families taking kids fishing for bluegill and Wisconsin’s famous Friday fish fry as well as long-standing indigenous traditions. “You’re losing culture and tradition, but also a way of life.”
But it’s not just fishing that is being affected by this year’s warm winter. As Wisconsin enters its spring months, there is a lasting impact of this past winter on outdoor recreation, which was a $9.8 billion revenue source for the state’s economy last year.
For Dave Marcouiller, an expert on outdoor recreation in the Department of Planning and Landscape Architecture, the weather effects are abundantly clear, as fewer people were able to take part in popular activities such as alpine and cross-country skiing, ice skating and snowshoeing.
“Outdoor recreation is very susceptible to a changing climate,” Marcouiller says. “It affects demand for what people want to do outdoors.”
Warm weather isn’t the only unusual characteristic of this past winter. Extreme climate events also marked this year’s winter. In February, a tornado touched down in Rock County for the first time in state history during the winter months.
“The fact that no tornadoes have ever occurred in February until this year should be alarming,” Jonathan Martin says.
According to Dave Marcouiller, these events may make tourism to Wisconsin for its outdoor recreation less and less appealing in the long run.
“The demand for outdoor recreation and related leisure travel suffers because of severe climatic events,” Marcouiller says.
Lakes, a major draw for internal and external tourism and recreation, are already likely to suffer from this year’s warm winter.
“The winter has a legacy effect on what our spring, summer and fall look like,” Feiner says. “Lakes have a memory of what the winter was like.”
Large algae blooms may make lakegoers less eager to swim and boat. Lake temperatures may fluctuate unusually, which would result in further changes to the habitability for different species. Despite these anticipated changes, predictions about summer weather remain unclear. Winters don’t necessarily determine the weather of future seasons and vice versa.
“The atmosphere has very little memory,” Martin says. “But the likelihood of an early season heat wave increases if the ground is dry. Some temperatures in May and even early June may be warmer than normal as a direct consequence of a dry spring.”
A Changing Climate in Wisconsin
Martin, Marcouiller and Feiner all emphasize that this winter ultimately serves as a testament to the effects of global climate change in Wisconsin.
“The background of global warming is not going to suddenly get weaker,” Martin says. “It’s going to keep building.”
And Wisconsinites must be prepared to shift course.
“Our ecosystems are adapted to have ice, and when we lose ice, it totally changes the way our species adapt and continue to survive,” Feiner says. “But there are a lot of things we can do to try and boost the resilience of our lakes and fish populations.”
Being conscious about land use around lakes to prevent nutrient runoff from fertilizers, manure and animal feed that decreases water quality is an important way to combat these effects, according to Feiner. He also underscores that preventing the spread of invasive species such as zebra mussels that filter out necessary algae and disrupt native food cycles is critical.
“I think there’s going to be a point in the next few decades where we hit a tipping point and our lakes might not freeze at all,” Feiner says. “And we have to be ready for it.”
The state of the outdoor recreation industry is also a point of concern looking to the future. Demand for outdoor recreation and leisure activities continues to increase nationwide, says Marcouiller. Changes in climate that impact Wisconsin's ability to provide those opportunities could have devastating economic effects.
“The outdoor recreation industry is going to have to be innovative and inventive,” Marcouiller says. “They have to think about extending their seasons, so they capture more summer recreational events.”
For example, ski resorts could be working on ways to minimize seasonality, such as using ski hills for mountain biking and renting out chalets for family reunions and weddings. Thankfully, in Marcouiller’s view, consumers are also adaptable to change.
“The demand for outdoor recreation is highly flexible,” he says. “And how we move forward in the face of global climate change is going to be different.”
Resiliency remains a critical virtue in how Wisconsinites and tourists enjoy lakes and other natural resources the state has to offer, but also in how scientists ultimately combat global climate change and its local manifestations.
“There are a lot of opportunities to stay active in thinking about how we interact with our lakes and how climate change might change the interaction,” Feiner says. “But they’re still going to be there. They’re still amazing resources.”