If you know that forests naturally re-generated after the 1988 Yellowstone fires and that some trees (lodgepole pines, for example) actually evolved to be fire-dependent, then you probably have Monica Turner to thank.
A pioneer in the field of landscape ecology, the Professor of Zoology has spent almost three decades studying, writing, and talking about forest fires and their aftermath, changing attitudes and shaping management techniques.
Now, Turner is trying to understand just how much of what she thought was true about fire and forests may no longer apply.
Turner’s lab is studying the effects of climate change on fire regimes in the northern Rockies, and finding that as the landscape gets warmer and drier, fires are more frequent. With less time between blazes, trees may not have enough time to produce cones, and with more frequent summer droughts, fewer tree seedlings may establish after fire. In 50, or even 20 years, that could spell big changes for forests in Yellowstone National Park and elsewhere.
“ We've created models for what might happen,” said Turner. “We may be looking at a forest fire regime that will be different than anything seen since the last Ice Age, 10,000 years ago.”
Will fires eventually kill the western forests?
Turner’s graduate students are studying that very question. It may be that bark beetles (whose populations have surged in recent warmer years) actually help reduce the risk of catastrophic fires. The beetles thin the forest and deplete fuels in the canopy, Turner said. But, how forests will respond amid all these new variables is anybody’s guess.
It makes for exciting work in Turner’s lab.
Turner
“Where we are now — this is the very edge of the science,” said Turner. “Climate is changing the rules of the game for many ecosystems.”
The trick, for Turner and her colleagues, is to anticipate some of those changes.
A new project encourages this approach. Turner’s lab is part of a National Science Foundation-funded project to study the Yahara watershed, which includes the five Madison-area lakes. The project is unique: an interdisciplinary team made up of five UW-Madison faculty members: an atmospheric scientist, a limnologist (Steve Carpenter, also in Zoology), a social scientist, a civil engineer, and a landscape ecologist (Turner). They’ll be looking specifically at “ecosystem services,” the term used to describe the many benefits people derive from nature, such as fresh water, food, bioenergy, hunting, fishing, and recreation.
“We’ll be looking at what can be done to enhance sustainability in the future, given anticipated changes in climate, policy, and land use,” said Turner. “This is the watershed where we all live and work, so we are committed to understanding it.”
This story was featured in the Department of Zoology's fall newsletter. See the full newsletter here.