What did you do for your summer vacation? This June, two dozen philosophers from all over the world came to UW–Madison for a most unusual summer program: the Bayesian Boot Camp. The event is sponsored by the Department of Philosophy and the College of Letters & Science and led by Vilas Distinguished Achievement Professor Michael Titelbaum and doctoral student Shimin Zhao.
Suppose you’ve been offered a job and given two weeks to reply. You’ve also interviewed for another job you’d much prefer, but they won’t get back to you for a month. Should you accept the present offer or hold out for the better opportunity? If an insider reveals that you were one of only three people who interviewed for the preferred position, should that change your mind?
Bayesian Epistemology answers such questions: It explains how to assign confidence levels based on evidence, how to change them when you get new information, and how to use them in decision-making. On the one hand, Bayesianism is a philosophy; on the other, it employs mathematical probability theory.
The Boot Camp taught Bayesian Epistemology from the ground up, so scholars could apply it in their instruction and research. Philosophy professors and graduate students came from as far away as Mexico, Brazil and Morocco to live and study in Madison for two weeks. They stayed in hotels, rental homes or the Chadbourne Residence Hall on campus and attended the Boot Camp from 9 to 5 p.m. in Helen C. White Hall every day. Since Bayesianism requires mathematical aptitude, the campers were assigned problem sets, which they completed in groups during the evenings or long working lunches. They also met with four guest lecturers who are experts in specific Bayesian techniques.
Despite the name, Bayesian Boot Camp wasn’t all hard work. Halfway through, the campers took in a Friday night Mallards semi-pro baseball game. The camp ended with a celebratory dinner. And the campers organized a mini conference during the weekend to share their own research and teaching ideas.
So, was the camp effective? In exit surveys, the campers reported increased comfort working with probabilities and planned Bayesian analyses of religion, social communication, logical learning, cognitive science, statistical practice, and the fairness of financial markets. One of them summarized his time by Lake Mendota: “I really envy UW–Madison students.”